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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-10-10 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100852 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 34(64) X(64) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 38(65) X(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) X(58) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 24(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 55(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 40 15(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 105W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 62(85) 3(88) X(88) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 5(58) X(58) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 6(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 39(76) 1(77) X(77) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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