je.st
news
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1
2024-06-30 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 94.9W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Rojo south to Puerto Veracruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 94.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion should continue until it dissipates over eastern Mexico late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast later tonight. The system is expected to weaken and dissipate after it moves inland over eastern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure reported by aircraft reconnaissance is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of eastern Mexico into Monday, with localized maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will result in areas of flooding, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-06-30 22:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302042 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.0N 96.6W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.2N 99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-06-30 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl's intensity appears to have leveled off. The extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it. However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the south side. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again later this evening. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. A continued relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary steering feature. Only a minor shift to the north has been made this cycle, following the trend in the latest models. Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in strength for the next day or so. There is high confidence that Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend. However, it should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics