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Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-06-20 04:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 917 WTNT41 KNHC 200250 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Alberto is gradually becoming better organized this evening. Satellite and microwave imagery shows a band curving around the southern side of the center near areas of deep convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the storm measured surface wind speeds of 43 kt and peak flight-level winds of 61 kt, with a much smaller radius-of-maximum winds than the previous mission. The intensity is set to 45 kt. The recent storm motion is generally westward at 8 kt. Model guidance insists Alberto will continue westward and accelerate as a ridge centered over the eastern United States builds over the area. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and predicts the center of the storm will reach the coast of Mexico overnight. Prior to moving inland, there is still a possibility that Alberto will slightly strengthen. The forecast now shows the storm dissipating over the mountains of Mexico in 24 hours. It is important to understand that Alberto is a large system and continues to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico far from the storm center. It is also worth noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected overnight along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.5N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012024)
2024-06-20 04:50:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALBERTO STRENGTHENING... ...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of Alberto was located near 21.5, -95.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-06-20 04:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2024 521 WTNT21 KNHC 200249 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......400NE 50SE 40SW 400NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 0SE 0SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 95.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics