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Tropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2024-06-20 04:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2024 02:51:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2024 03:22:36 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-06-20 04:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 917 WTNT41 KNHC 200250 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Alberto is gradually becoming better organized this evening. Satellite and microwave imagery shows a band curving around the southern side of the center near areas of deep convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the storm measured surface wind speeds of 43 kt and peak flight-level winds of 61 kt, with a much smaller radius-of-maximum winds than the previous mission. The intensity is set to 45 kt. The recent storm motion is generally westward at 8 kt. Model guidance insists Alberto will continue westward and accelerate as a ridge centered over the eastern United States builds over the area. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and predicts the center of the storm will reach the coast of Mexico overnight. Prior to moving inland, there is still a possibility that Alberto will slightly strengthen. The forecast now shows the storm dissipating over the mountains of Mexico in 24 hours. It is important to understand that Alberto is a large system and continues to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico far from the storm center. It is also worth noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected overnight along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.5N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-06-20 04:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2024 915 FONT11 KNHC 200250 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MCALLEN TX 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PESCA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPICO MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics