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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-05-17 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 171444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 57(61) 8(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 8 45(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 35(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 9 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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