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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics

2018-06-14 04:13:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 02:13:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 02:13:08 GMT

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-14 04:12:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur by late Thursday. After that time, a trough approaching the tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small adjustments were made to the previous track forecast. Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive that long due to the rugged terrain. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update of the previous one. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2018-06-14 04:09:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 33(38) 11(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 27(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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