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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics

2018-06-14 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 08:38:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 08:38:05 GMT

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 19

2018-06-14 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds, and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT data is available over Bud tonight. The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than indicated in the forecast. Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48 hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the cyclone. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2018-06-14 10:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 50 23(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 40 32(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAN JOSE CABO 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 5 29(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LA PAZ 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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