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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-06-13 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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