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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-07-10 16:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 101458 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 10 15 26 31 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 49 47 45 38 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 65 41 36 28 30 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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