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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-07-09 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 090837 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0900 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 11 14 11 11 TROP DEPRESSION 2 5 13 30 31 23 22 TROPICAL STORM 92 74 62 52 50 57 54 HURRICANE 7 20 23 7 5 8 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 18 20 7 5 7 12 HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 4(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 1(30) 1(31) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 33(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 56(57) 7(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 17(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 X 25(25) 31(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) PONCE 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN 34 X 20(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 21(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT CROIX 34 X 35(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 6 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 27 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) AVES 34 4 85(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) AVES 50 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) AVES 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 80 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) DOMINICA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MARTINIQUE 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BARBADOS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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