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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-06-30 16:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 301431 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 3 5 10 20 TROP DEPRESSION 11 12 13 12 12 28 45 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 64 56 60 55 35 HURRICANE 1 11 20 29 23 7 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 10 17 23 20 6 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 3 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 9( 9) 19(28) 8(36) 5(41) 1(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 11(11) 15(26) 5(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 2(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 11(24) 2(26) 1(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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