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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-07-01 22:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 9 23 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 7 13 23 34 48 TROPICAL STORM 45 51 61 62 62 52 28 HURRICANE 55 47 31 23 11 5 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 41 25 19 10 5 1 HUR CAT 2 3 5 4 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 13(28) 13(41) 5(46) 1(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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