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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-07-26 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 262032 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 7 15 17 26 NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 37 35 39 38 42 NA TROPICAL STORM 85 57 54 42 41 31 NA HURRICANE 1 2 4 3 3 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 3 3 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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