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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-08-27 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 272038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25(44) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 1(35) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 X 51(51) 19(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PONCE PR 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 13(13) 44(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 36(36) 18(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 1 55(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) VIEQUES PR 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 17(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 34 1 50(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT CROIX 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 50 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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