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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-07-05 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051449 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 4 24 44 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 3 7 19 45 43 TROPICAL STORM 72 39 44 54 63 30 13 HURRICANE 28 60 52 38 14 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 27 49 40 29 13 1 X HUR CAT 2 1 8 9 6 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 16(17) 25(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 2 18(20) 17(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 15 13(28) 2(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) ZIHUATANEJO 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20(29) 1(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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