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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2021-07-05 16:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 051456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 3 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KEY WEST FL 34 11 45(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) KEY WEST FL 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 1 19(20) 17(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 1 7( 8) 47(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 33(36) 22(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 38(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 43 9(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) HAVANA 50 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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