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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 13
2024-09-14 16:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-09-14 16:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Ileana is being affected by increasing southwesterly shear. A large burst of convection that occurred in the early morning hours has moved northeast of the exposed low-level center, while new convection is forming to the north and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates and earlier surface data from Topolobampo, Mexico. The initial motion is just east of due north or 010/6 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 6 hours or so, bringing the center near or over the coast of Mexico near Topolobampo and Los Mochis today. After that, Ileana should begin a slow motion toward the northwest over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico, with this motion continuing until the system dissipates. The new track forecast is nudged to the north and east of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Ileana is expected to weaken below tropical-storm strength later today due to a combination of shear and land interaction. However, before that happens, the cyclone should bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora through this afternoon. The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low between 12-24 h, with the remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 24.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 15/1200Z 26.3N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 26.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 27.7N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-09-14 16:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 141438 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics