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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-17 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170855 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 75.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 75.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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