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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-17 22:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172053 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO INCLUDING COZUMEL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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