je.st
news
Tropical Storm Helene Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-09-24 16:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 14:59:54 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-24 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241459 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm Helene at this time. Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt) as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence. However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in the future. Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence. Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There could be some increase in shear around the time the system reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system could reach the coast as a major hurricane. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-24 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 241459 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) X(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 29(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 45(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 64(81) X(81) X(81) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 1(70) X(70) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 70(74) X(74) X(74) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 60(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 1(57) X(57) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 13 51(64) 4(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COZUMEL MX 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 37 45(82) 7(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 11(26) 6(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics