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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-24 16:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 241459 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) X(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 29(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 45(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 64(81) X(81) X(81) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 1(70) X(70) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 70(74) X(74) X(74) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 60(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 1(57) X(57) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 13 51(64) 4(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COZUMEL MX 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 37 45(82) 7(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 11(26) 6(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-24 16:58:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.5, -84.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 5
2024-09-24 16:58:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the U.S. later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics