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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-13 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and TVCE aids. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the models. Key Messages: 1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-13 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 21.0, -108.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-13 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics