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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-13 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-09-13 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Public Advisory Number 18
2024-09-13 04:30:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Category: Transportation and Logistics