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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-14 10:53:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 Ileana continues to produce bursts of deep convection, but a sharpening of the west side of the cloud canopy suggests stronger vertical shear is setting in. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening, and the fact that subjective and objective intensity estimates have not begun to decrease much quite yet. Ileana's center is moving northward over the southern Gulf of California, away from southern Baja California Sur, with an initial motion of 360/8 kt. A northward motion is expected to continue today, bringing Ileana's center near or over the coast of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday. The new NHC track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous prediction during the first 12 hours or so, mainly due to an adjustment of the initial position. The track guidance indicates that Ileana should slow down and turn north-northwestward and then northwestward tonight and on Sunday, generally running up the length of the Gulf of California. Although deep-layer shear is beginning to increase, several models, including the GFS and ECMWF, indicate that Ileana could maintain tropical storm intensity and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora later this morning and early afternoon. These same models, however, show Ileana's convection quickly being sheared away and dissipating by this evening and tonight as the cyclone moves into a much drier air mass. As a result, the NHC forecast shows Ileana degenerating into a remnant low in about 24 hours, with the remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California by early Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 24.3N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-14 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA... As of 2:00 AM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 24.3, -109.2 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 8
2024-09-14 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140852 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 109.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito, and has discontinued all watches and warnings for Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 8 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics