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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-09-29 22:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 946 WTNT21 KNHC 292040 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2024-09-29 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 20:37:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 21:23:01 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-09-29 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 The increasingly hostile sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear, and dry air wrapping around the southern half of Isaac has weakened the cyclone. The last few visible stallite images before sundown suggest that the vortex could be tilted, with the low-level center displaced southwest of the upper-level vortex. Additionally, deep convection has become less symmetric since the last advisory, with convection in the southern semicircle likely being cut off by the aformentioned dry air. This structure is indicative of a progressing extratropical transition, as Isaac continues to interact with a baroclinic frontal zone to its northeast. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective and objective satellite classifications. Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to continue its extratropical transition and become a fully extratropical cyclone on Monday. This is in agreement with model-diagnosed thermodynamics that maintain a warm core until this time, in addition to simulated IR satellite data from the GFS and ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and shows a steady decrease in maximum sustained winds through the forecast period. The forward motion of the cyclone continues to be northeastward (050/10 kt). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so as Isaac continues to be steered by a mid-level trough to its west. This mid-level trough will steer Isaac towards the north-northeast beyond 36 hr. Beyond 96 hr, global model data indicates Isaac will be absorbed by a more potent extratropical cyclone just southeast of Iceland. The track forecast is again adjusted eastward from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 43.8N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 44.6N 32.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 45.8N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/0600Z 47.4N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 49.3N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0600Z 51.4N 23.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 53.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 57.9N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics