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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-28 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOYCE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 44.7W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 44.7 West. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is forecast later on Sunday and Monday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-09-28 04:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 280232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-09-28 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.7W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.7W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics