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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-28 07:26:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 280526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River Valley. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is producing limited shower activity near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form next week while moving toward the west and then northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by the early part of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as the system enters the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-28 07:13:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
811 ABPZ20 KNHC 280513 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form early next week off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is possible thereafter while the system drifts generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-09-28 05:16:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280315 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 Isaac has maintained a well-defined eye on both visible and infrared imagery for the past 12 hours or so. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. The latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 72 to 92 kt. The initial intensity is adjusted upward to 80 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective estimates. The hurricane is moving east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt. Isaac is currently moving in the zonal flow with the mid-latitude westerlies. A powerful deep-layer trough over Atlantic Canada will approach Isaac by Saturday night as a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Isaac. These steering features will cause Isaac to bend a bit more toward the northeast while slowing down slightly. On Monday, after Isaac becomes post-tropical, a turn more toward the north-northeast is expected, as the deep-layer trough moves eastward and the ridge moves northward. No significant changes have been made to the official forecast track forecast through the first 60-72 h. After that time, a sizable westward adjustment is made to the official forecast track, but the new NHC forecast track is well east of the latest consensus models beyond 72 h. It is possible Isaac could strengthen a little more tonight, although the hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. The cyclone is crossing the 26 degree C isotherm now, but is forecast to remain over 24-26 degree C sea-surface temperatures for another 36 h or so. The cold upper-level temperatures that Isaac is forecast to traverse should help maintain enough instability such that only slow weakening is forecast through 36 h, and Isaac is expected to maintain hurricane strength through that time. Also, although moderate southwesterly shear is forecast to increase slightly, the shear direction is the same as the direction of Isaac's motion, so this should not be too unfavorable. Beyond 48 h, sea-surface temperatures decrease significantly and wind shear is forecast to become very strong. This should cause the cyclone to lose its deep convection by Monday and then become extratropical. Little to no change was made to the previous official intensity forecast, while lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 38.2N 43.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 39.5N 40.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 41.0N 38.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 42.5N 37.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 43.8N 35.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 45.0N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 01/0000Z 46.9N 32.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 50.9N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z 53.8N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics