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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-10-03 15:01:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 031300 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 11 41 55 TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 4 12 17 38 19 TROPICAL STORM 84 65 51 57 59 17 16 HURRICANE 15 32 44 28 14 4 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 28 37 23 12 3 9 HUR CAT 2 1 3 5 4 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 1 X X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 60KT 50KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 4(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 14(27) 3(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 20(36) 2(38) X(38) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 8(29) 1(30) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 26(49) 3(52) 1(53) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 21(43) 14(57) 1(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 24(45) 3(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 16(38) 2(40) X(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 20(37) 14(51) X(51) 1(52) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 9(10) 41(51) 14(65) 6(71) 1(72) X(72) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 12(31) 1(32) X(32) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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