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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-10-05 16:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 051432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 25 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 31 42 48 43 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 68 49 35 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 34 2 7( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 5 14(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 8 15(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 19 23(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 8 10(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) JACKSON MS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 22 15(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 12 6(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW IBERIA LA 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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