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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-10-05 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 052036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 6 13 23 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 30 40 47 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 69 52 39 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 X 29(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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