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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-10-01 17:09:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 394 WTNT22 KNHC 011451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 39.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 130SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 39.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2024-10-01 16:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:55:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:55:34 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 13:51:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011151 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of Acapulco with disorganized thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within a few days. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander near southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics