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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-17 16:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171456 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 2(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 1(15) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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