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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-17 22:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 4(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 9(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 29(30) 4(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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