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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180857 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 17(41) 2(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 26(36) 18(54) 1(55) X(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 23(23) 22(45) 5(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 2 51(53) 12(65) 4(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) MANZANILLO 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 21(26) 7(33) X(33) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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