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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-09-18 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181437 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 39(47) 7(54) 1(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 9(10) 32(42) 22(64) 6(70) X(70) X(70) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 X 24(24) 17(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) P VALLARTA 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 21 59(80) 2(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 3 30(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 68 22(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MANZANILLO 50 18 26(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 64 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 17(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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