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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-18 22:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182048 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 18(24) 45(69) 4(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 3(35) 1(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 34(43) 4(47) X(47) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 32(33) 34(67) 7(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 34 4 30(34) 6(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) P VALLARTA 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 78 5(83) 1(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 41 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 86 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MANZANILLO 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 23(34) 20(54) 2(56) X(56) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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