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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-09-18 19:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181741 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 107.9W AT 18/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 107.9W AT 18/1800Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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