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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-09-15 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 10 42 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 30 42 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 84 45 15 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 13 15 X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 14 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 2 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN BLAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 25 26(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) P VALLARTA 50 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 86 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 31 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MANZANILLO 50 47 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MANZANILLO 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 21(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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