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Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-10-06 10:45:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 060845 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 6(38) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 7(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 4(45) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 5(46) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 6(58) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 7(59) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 5(51) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 3(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 2(34) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) 1(35) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 31(55) 1(56) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 2(44) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 41(71) 1(72) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 1(39) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 48(69) 3(72) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 2(38) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 43(56) 3(59) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 2(32) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 1(34) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 1(26) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-06 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 23.0, -94.9 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 4
2024-10-06 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics