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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-08-27 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 36(49) 4(53) X(53) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 43(57) 3(60) X(60) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 12(35) 1(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 2(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) 1(27) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 5( 5) 38(43) 37(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 39(40) 17(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 10 38(48) 8(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 8 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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