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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-10-15 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 13 25 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 43 40 33 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 54 45 39 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 2 4 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 3 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 25 9(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) LORETO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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