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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-22 04:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track prediction remains similar to the previous one. Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-22 04:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 21.8, -75.4 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 12
2024-10-22 04:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics