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Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2024-10-22 10:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 220832 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-22 10:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 the center of Oscar was located near 22.7, -74.8 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 13
2024-10-22 10:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 74.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the Bahamas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, Oscar is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics