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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-10-21 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210840 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 10(42) X(42) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 8(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 44(58) 4(62) X(62) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 46(63) 3(66) X(66) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 3(29) X(29) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 31(44) 17(61) 1(62) X(62) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 19(36) 11(47) 1(48) X(48) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) P ANGEL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) X(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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