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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-10-11 17:00:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111500 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 23(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 27(58) X(58) X(58) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 19(22) 31(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 71(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 10(50) X(50) X(50) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 66(67) 20(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X 14(14) 26(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 23(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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