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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-10-02 22:49:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 022049 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 72(74) 8(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 39(39) 9(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 14(28) 5(33) 1(34) 1(35) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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