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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics

2018-10-12 16:58:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:58:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:58:49 GMT

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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 53

2018-10-12 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Sergio crossed the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and is now moving over the Sea of Cortez. The convection has weakened and is displaced to the north of the still vigorous low-level circulation. Based on observations from the automatic stations of the Mexican Navy, the initial intensity is 35 kt. The effect of the high terrain and shear will result in additional weakening, and Sergio will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon and dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Sergio is moving toward the northeast at 20 kt embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This track should continue until dissipation in about 12 hours over Northwestern Mexico. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, portions of the desert southwest and the U.S. Southern Plains through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53

2018-10-12 16:56:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121456 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HERMOSILLO 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BAHIA KINO 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) HUATABAMPO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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