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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 48
2019-09-05 10:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050849 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO POQUOSON VA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT * TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA * NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.5W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.5W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-05 09:58:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Dorian was located near 31.7, -79.5 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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at5al052019
Hurricane Dorian Update Statement
2019-09-05 08:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 050656 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... A sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently reported at Winyah Bay, South Carolina. A wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) was reported at the Georgetown Airport in South Carolina. SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 79.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg
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update statement
Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-05 08:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 3:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Dorian was located near 31.5, -79.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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at5al052019
Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 47A
2019-09-05 07:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050554 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 47A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 79.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River * North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the progress of the hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to approach the coast of South Carolina this morning, move near or over the coast of South Carolina later today, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Winyah Bay, South Carolina. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North Carolina later this morning, with hurricane conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft North of Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through today across the coastal Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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