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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 8
2021-06-27 04:48:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 583 WTPZ35 KNHC 270248 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE CORE OF ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Punta Mita. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a northwest to north-northwest heading during next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late Sunday through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early Sunday, but Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken early next week as it moves over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday night in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Sunday and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-06-27 04:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270247 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA MITA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-06-27 01:50:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262350 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ENRIQUE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Recent satellite data indicate that the center of Enrique is located slightly south of earlier estimates. At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a northwest heading for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible in the short term, but Enrique is expected to begin weakening early next week as it begins moving over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-26 22:53:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262053 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a northwest heading for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible in the short term, but Enrique is expected to begin weakening early next week as it begins moving over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-26 22:50:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 262050 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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