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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-23 19:28:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

244 ABNT20 KNHC 231728 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Eleven, and is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Leslie located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are expected to diminish, and this could favor some development during the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move westward and west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and by Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen again, likely limiting the development. By then, the system is expected to be moving by the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of Subtropical Storm Leslie along a central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday. Conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-23 13:30:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

426 ABNT20 KNHC 231129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are expected to diminish, and this could favor some development during the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move westward and west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and by Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen again, likely limiting the development. By then, the system is expected to be moving by the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or tropical development during the upcoming week. First, a non- tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with some associated showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front late Tuesday or Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A second non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along the central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday several hundred miles west of the Azores. Conditions appear conducive for this system to also acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-22 19:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

823 ABNT20 KNHC 221732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is now producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit development for the next day or so, but conditions could become more conducive for some development of this system by early next week while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to increase again, which would limit additional development as the system turns northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A frontal non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-22 13:11:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

113 ABNT20 KNHC 221111 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized near the center of a low pressure system located about 500 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated on this system later today while the low moves westward at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is producing only minimal shower activity. Strong upper- level winds are expected to diminish by Sunday or Monday, which could allow for some slow development of this system while it moves westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to strengthen again, which would limit additional development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Satellite imagery indicates that a non-tropical low pressure system is forming along a frontal boundary about 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-22 07:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

547 ABNT20 KNHC 220538 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing since last evening near the center of a low pressure system located about 550 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the low moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to diminish by late this weekend or early next week, possibly allowing for some slow development of this system while it moves westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to strengthen again, which would limit development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is forming along a frontal boundary about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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